Goldman Sachs believes the ramp-up of Paytm’s recently introduced postpaid offering, a steady rebound in MTUs and the lending franchise, along with new product launches such as wallets, could act as key triggers for the stock. While Paytm continues to operate in a tightly regulated environment, the brokerage noted that the regulatory balance now appears tilted more toward upside than downside.
“We anticipate Paytm to deliver a steady 20–25% annual increase in revenue over the next two to three years, with its financial services arm likely to grow above 30% during the same period,” Goldman Sachs said in a note dated November 28. “We also expect financial conditions to loosen and credit growth to pick up from the second half of FY26, a backdrop that should support further expansion in Paytm’s consumer lending business.”
Goldman estimates a 45% upside for Paytm in its bull-case scenario, implying a value of Rs 1,870 per share. In an even more optimistic blue-sky case, the stock could see up to 79% upside, valuing it at Rs 2,320 per share. On the downside, its bear-case view factors in heightened competition in payments, a slower MTU recovery, and prolonged softness in consumer lending and marketing services, which could lead to a 28% decline, implying a value of Rs 930 per share.
They noted that the regulatory backdrop, which had previously weighed on the stock, is gradually improving. Early gains are visible in Paytm’s payments market share, clearer earnings visibility, and the phased return of key offerings. These factors are expected to support revenue growth of over 20% in the medium term.
The firm also highlighted additional upside potential over the next one to two years if policy changes around payment charges turn favorable or if Paytm gains further market share. Goldman Sachs expects the company’s EBITDA margin to more than double over the next three to four years.On November 26, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) granted a Certificate of Authorization (CoA) to Paytm’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Paytm Payments Services Limited (PPSL), to operate as a Payment Aggregator.“In furtherance to our disclosure dated August 12, 2025, and pursuant to Regulation 30 of the SEBI (Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements) Regulations, 2015, we would like to inform you that RBI on November 26, 2025, has granted CoA to Paytm Payments Services Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of One 97 Communications Limited, to operate as a Payment Aggregator under the Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007,” Paytm said in a filing to the stock exchanges.
Q2 performance snapshot
Paytm reported a 98% decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 21 crore in Q2, compared with Rs 928 crore in the year-ago period. Before a one-time charge of Rs 190 crore for full impairment of a loan to its JV, First Games Technology, PAT stood at Rs 211 crore.
Revenue from operations rose 24% YoY to Rs 2,061 crore, driven by an increase in subscription merchants, higher payments GMV, and growth in financial services distribution.
Looking ahead, Paytm has identified four focus areas, including expanding leadership across small and large merchants, online and offline, by deepening penetration of full-stack payment offerings, such as payment gateway solutions, QR, Soundbox, and All-in-One POS card machines.
Paytm shares have gained 55% over the last six months.
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