Wait, Carolina did what? Sunday’s upset win over the Rams — knocking off a No. 1 team in the NFL, as most power rankings suggested — was a surprising and validating win for the Panthers, who go into their bye week with a 7-6 record, already with as many wins as in the last two seasons combined.
It’s another step forward in Year 2 for coach Dave Canales, but the question for the next month is whether Carolina can do more than just make a small step forward — will the Panthers make the playoffs? A win like Sunday shows they can play with anyone, but Carolina’s up-and-down nature this season makes it hard to project. Statistically, the Panthers face tough odds to make the playoffs, but at the same time, it’s also right there in front of them with four games to play.
Why are the Panthers still alive as a playoff threat?
5. They have a simple path
Dave Canales and the Panthers control their playoff destiny. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
With their bye week, the Panthers have only four games left, which makes their playoff calculations simpler. The Athletic’s playoff simulator has Carolina with just a 22% chance of making the playoffs — 10th among NFC teams battling for seven spots — but they still control their destiny to make the postseason.
How? Two of the Panthers’ final three games are against the Buccaneers, which is a half-game up in the NFC South standings. So if the Panthers sweep the Bucs in Week 16 and 18 — no easy task — then any other Carolina win — at the Saints in Week 15 or home against the Seahawks in Week 17 — would give them the division title. They’d be no worse than 10-7, and that’s the best the Bucs can do in that scenario, and the Panthers would have the head-to-head tiebreaker. A Panthers sweep of the Bucs, plus any other Tampa Bay loss would also do the trick.
Sweeping the Bucs won’t be easy. Tampa Bay has won nine of the last 10 meetings, the last a 48-14 rout in December 2024. The first meeting is in Charlotte, so a small edge there, and if it really came down to the season finale in Tampa, anything is possible.
Without that sweep, it isn’t easy. If the Panthers split the two with the Bucs and beat the Saints and Seahawks, they’d need Tampa Bay to lose two of its other three games, and that’s against the Saints, Falcons and Dolphins, which is unlikely. They could make a wild card at 10-7, but they’d need Seattle, Chicago and Dallas to lose multiple games, plus a Detroit loss.
4. They’re beating good teams
‘They got back to the run game’ — Drew Brees on Panthers’ breakthrough win over Rams
Early on, it was easy to discount Carolina because the Panthers hadn’t beaten anyone of consequence. It was commendable they were 4-4, but they hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record. Then they went to Green Bay and beat the Packers, and Sunday’s win against the Rams was a take-this-team-seriously statement. Carolina’s defense forced three turnovers from Matthew Stafford, who had totaled four in the first 12 weeks of the season.
The Panthers are still a wildly inconsistent team. They followed the win in Green Bay with a loss to the Saints, who ranked 30th in last week’s FOX Sports power rankings. Their 1-3 start included a loss to the Cardinals, which has gone 1-9 since that win. They have a 30-0 win against the Falcons, but also two losses by 29 points or more to the Patriots and Bills. They’re unpredictable, which makes it hard to discount them in a small sample like the final four weeks of the regular season: They could totally go 3-1 and host a playoff game at 10-7, or just as easily go 1-3 and finish with a losing record, missing the division and wild card by three games.
They’re also a confident team. Sunday’s win over the Rams included two touchdowns on fourth down, and no team in the league has gone for it on fourth down more than the Panthers with 30 attempts this season. They’ve converted on 21 of them, also matching the league high, for a 70% conversion rate. For comparison, they led the league in fourth-down attempts in 2023, more out of desperation, converting only 4%.
3. Their defense is vastly improved
‘We beat a damn good team’ — Derrick Brown on Panthers’ upset win over Rams
Carolina went from 2-15 in 2023 to 5-12 in Dave Canales’ first season last year, but they didn’t show much improvement on defense. The 2024 Panthers were dead last in scoring defense — allowing nearly four points per game more than any other team — and in total defense, giving up more than 400 yards per game. They were worst on third down and worst against the run, and they chose to bring back coordinator Ejiro Evero for another season.
That’s worked very well, as the Panthers are 15th in scoring defense and 18th in total defense, giving up 8.6 fewer points and 73 fewer yards per game. They have matched their takeaway total from last season and …
2. Their 1-2 punch at running back has thrived
Chuba Hubbard rushed for 83 yards in the Panthers’ win over the Rams. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)
With Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard, the Panthers have two running backs with more than 400 yards rushing. Only five other NFL teams can boast that, and all five (Bears, Lions, Texans, Rams, Seahawks) have winning records. Dowdle is one of the best value free agents of this past offseason, signing on a one-year, $2.75 million deal that should more than double thanks to incentives. He’s already earned $1.5 million by clearing yardage incentives, and needs only 167 more yards from scrimmage to add another $1 million. He’s earned $250,000 by scoring six touchdowns and can get another $250,000 with two more. He’s no lock to make the Pro Bowl, but if he does, that’s another $500,000 for that. Again, still a good deal, even at close to $6 million earned.
The Panthers, having invested in their offensive line in both free agency and the draft, now have a top-10 rushing attack, good for 125 yards per game, which has helped keep pressure off quarterback Bryce Young. The two backs are also factors in the passing game, combining for 52 catches for 448 yards and four touchdowns. Two years ago, before Canales’ arrival, their backs had zero receiving touchdowns.
1. Bryce Young is leading them to victories
Bryce Young has finally emerged as not just a steady hand for the Panthers at quarterback, but also a reason why they’re winning games. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Here’s a surprising stat for you: How many NFL quarterbacks have more games with 3-plus passing touchdowns than Young this season?
The answer is only three. Stafford has six, Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott have five, and all alone in fourth is Young, with four. That’s the same Young who had just one three-touchdown game in his first 29 games with the Panthers, and now he has five in his last 13 games. When the Panthers beat the Falcons in overtime three weeks ago, Young threw for 448 yards, resetting Cam Newton’s franchise record.
The concern going into this season was that the Panthers were winning with Young, but not necessarily because of Young. For the second year in a row, they used their first-round pick on a receiver, and Tetairoa McMillan has been outstanding with 57 catches for 826 yards and six touchdowns. He’s on course to break the team’s rookie record for receiving yards and could challenge the rookie record of nine receiving touchdowns as well.
Before this season, it was no lock that the Panthers would exercise Young’s fifth-year option for 2027, basically a guaranteed $26.5 million. But now that seems like a certainty. The quarterback who was benched at midseason last year has taken control of this team, and will soon have the franchise’s first 20-touchdown season since Newton in 2018, ending the longest drought without one for any NFL team.
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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