It was Donald Trump’s idea, but there appeared to be a consensus—the U.S., Ukraine, Europe, and even quasi-neutral Turkey agreeing that Ukraine and Russia should stop shooting and sign on to a comprehensive ceasefire before peace talks began. But as Vladimir Putin has proven again and again, he doesn’t want to stop fighting. He believes he has the battlefield advantage and wants to grab as much of Ukraine as possible before the guns go silent.
Trump responded to Putin’s ceasefire refusal by urging Kyiv to talk anyway and send what everyone assumed would be an exploratory delegation to meet with the Russians in Istanbul. Then, over the weekend, Volodymyr Zelensky upped the ante, committing to appear in person in Turkey and meet with Putin face to face.
It’s classic Zelensky—when in doubt, roll the dice. He’s a gambler who takes big risks, hoping for big rewards. But this could be one of his boldest gambits yet. Terrifyingly, the outcome depends on Trump.
Putin makes little secret of his determination to press on with the war. Like Zelensky, he’s eager to appear responsive to Trump’s demand for negotiations. The Kremlin is desperate to reestablish trade and financial relations with the West. But the old KGB spy is a master of evasion and subterfuge, ignoring or rejecting virtually every peace proposal in recent months and often parrying with counterproposals that he knows are unacceptable to Kyiv or Washington.
The steely Russian leader, in command in the Kremlin for 26 years, hasn’t moved an inch off his original demands for a disarmed, neutral Ukraine with a vestigial army and no powerful weaponry, barred from NATO, and denied Western military support. Even Trump, inclined to humor Putin, has nixed some of this—most importantly, the disarmament of Ukraine and provisions on language, religion, and political activity that would open the door to Russian interference in Ukrainian internal affairs. Still, Putin persists, including with his most far-fetched ultimatum—that the West withdraw the estimated 15,000 to 20,000 NATO troops stationed in Poland and the Baltic states.
Most Ukrainians want peace, but not, as some opponents claim, because they are losing the war. They aren’t losing. Moscow has made slow gains on the eastern front—a few yards a day in exchange for up to 1,500 Russian lives. But that’s only one dimension of the conflict.
Ukrainians can also boast a long list of wins. Once expected to fall in three days, Kyiv has been holding its own for over three years against a larger, richer neighbor, once thought to have one of the best armies in the world. Nearly a million Russians have been killed or wounded—as of Tuesday, the official Ukrainian count of Russian casualties is 968,130.
Kyiv had a scant modern defense industry before the Russian invasion. Now it’s on the cutting edge of military innovation. It can produce more than 4 million drones a year and tanks, howitzers, and long-range cruise missiles. It has used this inventive arsenal to drive Moscow’s once vaunted Black Sea Fleet into a remote corner where few of its missiles threaten Ukraine. Meanwhile, long-range Ukrainian drones wreak havoc daily deep inside Russia—destroying oil refineries, weapons depots, and logistics hubs.
Less tangible but arguably as important, Ukrainians have won the world’s respect and admiration for their courage and determination. No one is confused about their fervent desire to join the West or the benefits they would bring, starting with their military prowess. Trump says Zelensky has “no cards.” But that’s only because the 47th president can’t, or won’t, recognize the strength of Ukraine’s hand.
Zelensky’s offer to attend talks in Istanbul is part of the macabre Kabuki theatre that has played out between Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington since Trump won. Both Russia and Ukraine profess to want peace—true in Kyiv’s case, not in the Kremlin’s. The Trump administration speaks with many tongues, often at odds with each other. The president moves the goal posts every few days. The White House has exerted no pressure on Moscow, even as it has punished Kyiv, sometimes severely, for transgressions as minor as an impertinent remark.
What Zelensky is hoping for in Istanbul: either Putin doesn’t show, or he overplays his hand, revealing his intransigence and reluctance to make peace. Even Trump seems to grasp that the encounter will be telling. ”At least,” he wrote on Truth Social on Sunday night, “[the negotiators] will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly.”
Zelensky’s existential gamble is that Trump will finally see the truth about Putin—that he doesn’t want peace, is just playing the president, and considers the collective West as an implacable enemy.
Though Trump has known Putin for decades, he has shown only the barest hint of skepticism about the strongman’s sincerity. Many in the administration, including influential special envoy Steve Witkoff, still argue that Moscow is bargaining in good faith. The risk for Ukraine is that Trump will continue to take both sides at face value and push for an “impartial” compromise—a midpoint between the two countries’ positions—with no regard for fairness, durability, or the human consequences in Ukraine.
Ukrainians want peace, but not at any price. If things go badly in Istanbul, Zelensky can walk away. Ukrainians are ready to go on fighting, with or without American help, rather than accept an unjust peace that mocks their wartime sacrifices. But sadly, only the West—the U.S. and Europe—can force Putin to make a deal. It’s the only way to stop the killing. And it depends on the capricious commander-in-chief who no one, friend or foe, would mistake for an honest broker.
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