Once A Postseason Lock, How Did This Happen to the Detroit Tigers?

On July 9, the Detroit Tigers seemed like the one sure thing in Major League Baseball. 

They entered the day with a 14-game lead in the American League Central, a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians and no inkling of the historic collapse soon to come. 

A stretch of 12 losses over 13 games gave a glimpse of an ignominious implosion ahead, yet their dominion over the AL Central still did not appear in question. They had the best record in baseball at the break and led Cleveland by 12.5 games on Aug. 25, 11 games on Sept. 4 and 6.5 games as recently as Sept. 15. 

Then, in conjunction with the Guardians’ unexpected and admirable ascension, one of baseball’s worst ever self-destructions went into hyperdrive. 

Before snapping an eight-game losing streak Thursday, the Tigers had lost 20 of 27 games and 15 of their first 20 games in September, cracking the door open for another AL Central competitor to emerge. The Guardians busted through and now hold the keys to the AL Central entering the season’s final weekend, while the Tigers cling to the AL’s final wild-card spot. 

On Tuesday, Cleveland became the first team in AL/NL history to erase a deficit of more than 15 games. On Wednesday, the Guardians won for the 17th time in 19 games to move into sole possession of first place in a division that long ago appeared decided.

After the Tigers took the series finale Thursday, the two teams are now tied again. But the Guardians hold the tiebreaker against a Detroit team that is suddenly, shockingly, no longer in the AL Central’s driver’s seat.

“I’m having a hard time coming up with words,” manager A.J. Hinch told reporters Wednesday after the Tigers’ eighth straight loss. “I know that’s not always that acceptable or the norm, but what I’m seeing out of our team is not normal. But, unfortunately, it’s our reality.”

Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers found themselves in a bind. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

So is this: Unless the Tigers can stem the bleeding, build off Thursday’s win this weekend and at least claim a playoff spot, this could go down as the worst meltdown in modern baseball history. 

Over the last 30 years, there were the chicken-and-beer Red Sox of 2011, who missed the postseason after holding a nine-game wild-card advantage in September; the 2007 Mets, who blew a seven-game lead in the division with 17 games to play; and the 1995 Angels, who watched an 11-game division lead in the middle of August disintegrate. 

But there was nothing quite like this. 

“I’ll have plenty of time to process this in due time,” Hinch continued on Wednesday, “but I try to get these guys ready to play the next day because it’s the day we can control.”

Those days are dwindling.

Since holding that 15.5-game lead over the Guardians, the Tigers are tied for the fifth-worst record in MLB at 27-39. Since Aug. 24, they have the second-worst record in MLB (8-20); a reality made harsher by the fact that no team in that time has won more games than Cleveland (22). 

(Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The meltdown has been multifaceted. 

The Tigers offense entered Thursday ranked 22nd or worse this month in runs scored, batting average, slugging, OPS and strikeouts. Javier Báez, who earned his first All-Star nod since 2019, has been MLB’s fifth-worst hitter by wRC+ in the second half (min. 100 plate appearances). Fellow All-Stars Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres and Zach McKinstry are all hitting under .230 since the break. 

The September pitching woes have been even more problematic, extending both to the rotation (5.22 ERA, 28th in MLB) and the bullpen (5.08, 28th). 

With a chance to make significant upgrades at the deadline, the Tigers decided to bargain hunt, choosing quantity over quality. The Kyle Finnegan addition, at least, looked masterful out of the break. He helped provide a ninth-inning answer while starting his Tigers career with 12 straight scoreless appearances. But he suffered a right adductor strain at the end of the month, and the Tigers bullpen — which led MLB with a 2.98 ERA in August — cratered precipitously. Finnegan has since returned, but he hasn’t looked as dominant since getting activated last week, and the additions of Rafael Montero and Paul Sewald haven’t fixed the overall bullpen issues, which were apparent even when all was going well. 

Meanwhile, they did nothing to bolster their offense, and their moves to add depth to their rotation were an abject failure. Charlie Morton amassed a 7.09 ERA before being released. Chris Paddack has a 6.12 ERA between the rotation and the bullpen. 

But as the season began to crumble, they could at least rely on one fact: They employ the best pitcher in the league. Tarik Skubal has been the one constant, which made Tuesday’s sixth-inning debacle in a vital opener against the Guardians all the more deflating. 

The Tigers led 2-0 in the sixth inning after a Riley Greene home run. Skubal was dealing, but he throws the baseball; he doesn’t snap it. When Angel Martínez pushed a bunt down the first-base line, Skubal attempted to hike the ball for an out. With his back turned to first, the Tigers ace barehand-tossed the baseball through his legs and over the head of Spencer Torkelson in what might end up the lasting image of a season gone haywire if the Tigers’ sinking ship submerges. 

Unrest turned to unraveling as “Guards Ball” commenced. Jose Ramírez, who has unsurprisingly helped catalyze this Guardians rise, dribbled an RBI infield single to third. Amid the implosion came alarm, when a 99-mph fastball from Skubal found the face of David Fry on an attempted bunt. As Fry crumpled to the ground, Skubal removed his hat and glove, put his mouth to his face and looked away, understandably shaken by the scene. He then threw a wild pitch to bring in the tying run, advanced a runner on a balk and allowed an RBI groundout that put the Guardians ahead for good. In an inning reflective of both the Tigers’ late-season meltdown and the Guardians’ kismet, Cleveland took the lead on Skubal without the ball leaving the infield (save for his throw). 

With that, the Guardians — despite putting two pitchers on leave amid an MLB gambling investigation and trading Shane Bieber to Toronto at the deadline — erased a seemingly insurmountable deficit, putting themselves in position to finish off a comeback unlike any since divisional play began in 1969. 

The Guardians are in control of the AL Central race. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The 1978 Yankees were 14 games back on July 19 before stunning the Red Sox to win the division and ultimately the World Series. The aforementioned 1995 Angels watched the Mariners storm back from a 13-game deficit on Aug. 2 to win Seattle’s franchise’s first ever division title. 

Overcoming a 15.5-game deficit and making up 11 games in September to win the division would be unprecedented. 

The final chapter, of course, has yet to be written. And for the Tigers, all is not yet lost. 

Cleveland starters had amassed an MLB-best 2.06 ERA in September and had gone a record 19 straight games allowing two runs or fewer until Thursday, when the Tigers responded with a 4-2 win. A lead-off home run from Jahmai Jones to start the game seemed to let them exhale. 

“Tonight was just a night we knew we needed to win,” Jones said. 

The Tigers still need more to keep any hope alive of winning their first division title since 2014, something that seemed like a foregone conclusion just a couple of weeks ago. If they don’t, they can still make the postseason as a wild-card team. They hold a one-game lead over the Astros for the final playoff spot and have the tiebreaker over Houston, but a perilous weekend awaits. 

While the Astros fly to Anaheim to face an Angels team with the third-worst record in baseball since the break, the Tigers travel to Boston to face a Red Sox team still trying to cement a spot in the postseason. The Guardians, meanwhile, host a Rangers team that’s already been eliminated. 

The Tigers managed to salvage the series Thursday; the next three days will determine if they can salvage the season, too. 

“We have a good team; we’ve had a good team,” Hinch said after Thursday’s win. “We need to play like it.”

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.
 

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