SATURDAY AM: In the old days, like pre aughts, rival studio execs enjoyed sniping about a competitor’s upsets. But nowadays with streamers like Apple, Amazon and Netflix sitting outside the hen house, ready to gobble up any big pic at auction, there’s a lot of rooting going on among motion picture studios for their fellow brethren. Especially this weekend for Paul Thomas Anderson‘s very expensive $130M-$140M, Leonardo DiCaprio starring radicalist action movie One Battle After Another, which continues to stick to its $21M forecast after a near $9M Friday (which includes previews) and a solid A CinemaScore and a huge 74% definite recommend on Screen Engine/Comscore’s PostTrak . Always we always said, a win for originality at the box office, is a win for all. After all, no one wants a future where auteurs are confined only to streaming when it comes to their ambitious endeavors. PLFs and Imax are repping an enormous 52% of the pic’s weekend till. There are also 70MM locations.
One Battle After Another is playing best on the coasts, which is where close to have the gross is coming from. AMC’s New York Lincoln Square is the movie’s top grossing venue so far with close to $112K.
Yes, typically, at these production cost levels and openings, we throw a hatchet, read Mickey 17 and Joker: Folie a Deux. We even gave Colin Farrell and Margot Robbie’s Big Bold Beautiful Journey a hard time last weekend, that Kogonada directed romance movie dropping -63% in weekend 2 to $1.2M and a ten-day of $5.8M. Yes, if there’s one battle One Battle After Another faces, it’s the pic’s daunting budget, but more on that later. That’s the elephant in the room. There was always risk associated with the priciest Anderson movie of all-time, given how niche he historically played at the box office; he hadn’t previously expanded to mass following ala Quentin Tarantino, until possibly now. Those who bought tickets last night said Anderson was the chief reason why they went to see the movie at 45% in PostTrak exits.
Since launching One Battle After Another outside the fall film festival troika, word of mouth has been electric, with a standing ovation, and not an empty seat in the house, at the Friday, Sept. 12, Academy screening. The belief, knock on wood, is that Warners might have a slow burn Oscar contender on their hands here at the B.O. with One Battle After Another ala Best Picture winners 2012’s Argo ($19.4M opening, $136M domestic) and 2006’s The Departed ($26.8M opening, $132.2M). Argo eased -16% in its second weekend, and continued to hold week after week, with Departed down -29% in weekend 2. Granted, very different pre-streaming times when windows were longer. That 74% definite recommend correlates to at least a 3x multiple or more for the pic’s final domestic box office. Not to mention, in regards to word of mouth, 90% of the audience said the movie either met or exceeded their expectations. “No hasty judgements this weekend,” a non-Warner Bros distribution exec tells me this morning about the ultimate prospects for One Battle After Another.
Here’s the upside to One Battle After Another, and that’s DiCaprio. Without him, the movie is a niche Anderson play. Forty-one percent of ticket buyers said they went to see One Battle After Another because of DiCaprio. He is one of the stars who continues to make original movies, and comes with a box office opening guarantee, this being his 11th title to open north of $20M. We didn’t see that type of opening box office stamina last weekend with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell in the non-franchise Big Bold Beautiful Journey.
RelishMix says that the social media universe across TikTok, Instagram, X, Facebook and YouTube stands at 250M, which is ahead of another comp, that being A24’s Civil War (101M). That Kirsten Dunst movie, also arguably anti-establishment leaning ala One Battle After Another opened to $25.5M, and ended its run at $68.7M. DiCaprio is active on social media, and that’s to the benefit of Warners, the Oscar winner reaching 96.5M. Regina Hall also brings close to 7M.
DiCaprio is definitely out there, working social, and appearing at his hometown theater, the Vista, for a screening yesterday. DiCaprio and Del Toro also posted telling their followers to go buy tickets.
Says RelishMix, “Convo runs positive for One Battle After Another with fans buzzing like they just got the dream collab nobody dared to expect. Comments lean into the once-in-a-generation pairing of Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, Sean Penn and Paul Thomas Anderson as a ‘business-saving’ moment for cinema, comparing the trailer to past seismic moments. As stated, ‘One Battle After Another gonna be the greatest Leonardo DiCaprio performance since The Wolf of Wall Street!!!’ while another declares, ‘The best Hollywood star meets the best American filmmaker of our generation! Most anticipated.’ Others riff on DiCaprio’s “Oscar magnet” status, saying “Leo doesn’t need the Oscar, the Oscar needs Leo,” and touting Greenwood’s score as an event in itself, drawing parallels to the sonic punch of PTA’s There Will Be Blood.“
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FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Paul Thomas Anderson, as we told you earlier this week, is heading to his best opening at the domestic box office, with One Battle After Another set to earn $8.5 million-$9 million Friday (including previews) for what’s shaping up to be a $21M weekend at 3,635 theaters.
That domestic start for One Battle After Another also reps the 11th movie for Leonardo DiCaprio to open north of $20M. We’re hearing that overseas is around $24M for what’s looking like a $45M global bow at this point. The VistaVision-shot and -presented movie is playing Imax and PLFs. Next weekend there’s a co-share on Imax with AMC’s album-release movie Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl and A24’s The Smashing Machine, starring Dwayne Johnson in the biopic of UFC champion Mark Kerr.
Among Anderson movies, One Battle After Another is now his best with Rotten Tomatoes audiences at 90%, higher than Magnolia and Boogie Nights, both at 89%.
Universal/DreamWorks’ Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie isn’t looking as messy as we feared earlier with a $13.5M opening after a $4.3M Friday (including $700,000 previews) at 3,500 locations.
RELATED: ‘One Battle After Another’ Trailer: Leonardo DiCaprio Searches For His Daughter In Paul Thomas Anderson’s Gunslinger Thriller For Warner Bros
In third place is another Warner Bros movie, New Line’s The Conjuring: Last Rites, at 3,083 locations with a $2.1M fourth Friday and a fourth weekend of $7.1M, off 42%, for a running total of $161.7M by EOD Sunday.
Sony/Crunchyroll’s Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle eases to fourth place with $1.7M in its third Friday for a fourth weekend of $6.4M, -63%, for a running total of $117.4M.
Fifth goes to Lionsgate’s The Strangers – Chapter 2 at 2,690 theaters, for a Friday of $2.2M, 3-day of $5M-$6M.
RELATED: Madelaine Petsch Talks ‘The Strangers: Chapter 2’, Why Horror Is Thriving & What’s Next In ‘Chapter 3’
UPDATED FRIDAY, 7:52 AM: Warner Bros is reporting $3.1M this morning for Paul Thomas Anderson’s $130M-$140M pic One Battle After Another. That number is higher than the previews for Leonardo DiCaprio movies Killers of the Flower Moon, which opened during the actors strike sans cast promotion, but also The Revenant, which posted $2.3M in previews before its wide break in January 2016 during its second weekend (after its NY/LA opening on Christmas Day).
Speaking of very expensive original movies with DiCaprio, he’s certainly been here before with The Revenant, which opened to $39.8M (granted, after 14 days of limited play that saw $1.5M). Revenant, with its gloomy Western wilderness setting, was a hold-your-breath moment for 20th Century Fox and New Regency executives before being nominated for 12 Oscars and winning three, one of which is DiCaprio’s sole golden-guy trophy. Revenant would go on to do $183.6M domestic, and $532.9M worldwide netting $61M in profit after all downstream revenues.
By the way, here’s DiCaprio’s top five openers at the domestic box office:
Now doing more in its first Thursday than One Battle After Another is the Indian gangster film They Call Him OG, which grossed an estimated $3.77M at 800 locations. Directed by Sujeeth and Ashwin Neal Mani, the pic stars Pawan Kalyan as a Mumbai mob boss who resurfaces after vanishing in the city’s underworld with a mission to take out his rival crime lords.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie, Universal and DreamWorks’ feature take on the Netflix series, saw $700K on Thursday from showtimes that began at 2 p.m. in 2,650 locations. That number is on par with the previews of Sony’s Harold and the Purple Crayon, which did $725K and opened to $6M in 2024. Eeeeek. Uni was expecting a number in the low- to mid-teens for this G-rated preschool IP. Net production cost for the movie featuring Kristen Wiig, Gloria Estefan and Laila Lockhart Kraner is $32M before P&A. Gabby’s is a DreamWorks Animation production for Netflix. It’s 77% fresh with critics.
Madelaine Petsch in ‘The Strangers — Chapter 2’
Lionsgate
Lionsgate’s The Strangers – Chapter 2 grossed $630K from Thursday night’s preview shows. The movie opens Friday in 2,690 theatres in what’s expected to be a $6M-$7M take. That preview number is half of what Strangers – Chapter 1 did back in May 2024, which was $1.2M. That first Renny Harlin-directed horror pic starring Madelaine Petsch opened to $11.8M. This one is expected to land in the mid-single digits. Critics weren’t a fan of the first movie at 21% Rotten, and they aren’t fans of the sequel at 18%. Chapter 1 received a C CinemaScore.
The week’s Top 5:
1) Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle (Sony) 4,607 theaters, Wk $23.6M (-73%), Total $111M/Wk 2
2) Him (Uni) 3,168 theaters, Wk $17M/Wk 1
3) The Conjuring: Last Rites (NL/WB) 3,413 theaters, Wk $16.3M (-54%), Total $154.5M/Wk 3
4) Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (Foc) 3,711 theaters, Wk $10.2M (-60%), Total $35.6M/Wk 2
5) The Long Walk (LG) 2,845 theaters, Wk $9M (-45%), Total $25.4M/Wk 2
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Warner Bros’ original Leonardo DiCaprio movie from Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another, is posting previews around $2.5M with potential for upside according to sources.
We keep hearing that advance tickets sales in cities continues to grow.
Tonight’s estimated figure isn’t far from the preview night of DiCaprio’s last movie, Apple Original Films’ Killers of the Flower Moon, which posted $2.6M on its first Thursday evening, turning into a $9.4M Friday and 3-day of $23.2M. Now that was during the 2023 strikes when the cast couldn’t promote, not to mention that Martin Scorsese directed feature take of the bestselling novel was 3 hours and 26 minutes long. One Battle After Another is considerably shorter at 2 hours and 41 minutes (and, man, does it move at a clip).
Now, Thursday previews for One Battle After Another, which started at 2PM today in 3,200 locations are under that of Quentin Tarantino’s 2019 DiCaprio movie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood which did $5.8M off showtimes that started at 4PM. That R-rated movie morphed into a first Friday of $16.7M, and $41M 3-day, a record domestic opening for Tarantino. That movie had the added boost of an early August release date, as well as the marquee power of Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie. Once Upon a Time..also had a long tail in regards to its word of mouth, blasting off with a worldwide Cannes premiere at the start of summer.
The Rotten Tomatoes Audience score for One Battle After Another stands at 87% which is higher than a slew of DiCaprio fan faves, i.e. The Revenant (84%), Killers of the Flower Moon (84%), Wolf of Wall Street (83%), and even Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (70%). Among Anderson movies, One Battle After Another is heads and tails higher than the helmer’s last movie, 2021’s Licorice Pizza (65%), as well as a point ahead of the 2x Oscar winner There Will Be Blood (86%), but under Boogie Nights and Magnolia which both stand at 89%. More updates in the AM.
One Battle After Another is expected to file in the low $20M range stateside off its $130M-$140M production cost. The movie’s fate will be determined in the long run. Warners opted to skip the spotlight of the fall film festival troika after Joker: Folie a Deux ran into a buzzsaw at Venice last year. The studio began screening One Battle After Another just as press were returning from Toronto. A win this weekend for One Battle After Another is a win for original theatrical films in the streaming era.
