This college football game sure can surprise you at times.
That’s exactly what the CFB gods had in store for us Saturday at Autzen when Indiana upset Oregon, thus shaking up the Big Ten and national title race. There are five ranked matchups this week along with eleven ranked teams on the road against unranked teams, with a couple of them being an underdog— offering a chance to shake things up even further. Let’s get into my top 10.
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No-sweat road wins over ranked teams are always good things, and that’s exactly what this was. The Ohio State defense dominated the game and without the offense turning the ball over, Illinois had zero chance. The Buckeyes might be able to add to the head coaching unemployment list this week in Madison, facing a team that has scored 20 points in three Big Ten games. There’s a chance the opener against Texas might be the only team on Ohio State’s schedule that finishes the regular season ranked.
The Canes are clearly overrated now that Florida State has fallen out of the rankings, and Notre Dame has two losses. I’m joking, but that narrative is out there, and that should serve as motivation for Miami, which has Louisville Friday night. This will be the best test for the Canes secondary since the Notre Dame game. Miami will likely be double-digit favorites the rest of the way, but there will be some uneasy fans Thanksgiving weekend at Pitt.
Funny how most people were expecting Penn State to be the team to break narratives this season and emerge as a national title contender. Instead, it was Indiana which broke those narratives of not being able to compete against top 10 teams with an emphatic road win at Oregon. It wasn’t a fluke—it was dominance by the Hoosiers defense, which allowed just 13 points. And after a game-tying pick six, Fernando Mendoza and the offense went right back down the field to retake the lead. IU is now a big favorite to finish undefeated and reach the Big Ten title game, as they are likely to face zero teams with a winning record the rest of the way.
The Aggies started slow but it was never in doubt after the first quarter. Now they have a stretch of three straight road games— at Arkansas, which can score points, and then at LSU and Missouri. It would be surprising if A&M made it through unscathed, but based on the math they have a real shot. The only time A&M played a game away from home this season, it survived at Notre Dame in controversial fashion. But right now, the Aggies look like the best team in the SEC.
Big Ten fans won’t want to hear it, but compare Alabama’s schedule to Indiana, Oregon or Ohio State. It’s like the two are playing different sports. Alabama has just played three straight ranked opponents— two on the road— and now get a fourth this week when it hosts Tennessee. Bama has six teams currently ranked on its schedule, and that Big Ten trio has combined for four. The Tide made enough big plays to get a win in a tough spot at Missouri, and the second-half defense has been really good the last three weeks.
Georgia has plenty of flaws, but they have “intestinal fortitude” as Gorilla Monsoon would have said. Most are focusing on the officiating, but I’ll focus on a Georgia defense that allowed drives covering 17, -2, 6, 4 and 25 yards in the second half— with the final drive coming after UGA took a 10-point lead. Seems like an annual occurrence for the Bulldogs to have cluster OL injuries, but they survived the road test and now get a shot at some revenge against Ole Miss in Athens.
I expected the Rebels to be a little flat against Washington State, but that was a little more than even I could have expected. Lane Kiffin’s squad is at Georgia and at Oklahoma the next two weeks. Win one and we’ll see you in the CFP. Lose both, I still think the Rebels finish 10-2, but obviously the margin for error goes away.
There are some Injury concerns for Tech’s biggest game of the season to this point, as both QB Behren Morton and DL Skyler Gil-Howard are dealing with leg injuries. I’m guessing we’ll see Sam Leavitt back at QB for the Sun Devils this week, but will that be enough? Cameron Dickey ran for more yards against Kansas (263) than he did in the previous four games vs FBS teams.
That was a very surprising result in Autzen. Did I overrate Oregon some? Maybe. Did I underrate Indiana some? Yes. Whatever the reasons, Oregon’s offense was over-matched by Indiana and looked, dare I say, slow? Look, this is not a “the sky is falling” moment for Oregon. The Ducks are still very good and headed to the playoff, but the next few games could feature some ugly ball at Rutgers and Iowa. Now if you think there are bigger issues, this would be your time to bet no CFP— as games at Iowa, vs USC and at Washington could result in a 1-2 mark.
Yeah, the Irish are 4-2. Don’t care. This is one of the ten best teams in the country right now. C.J Carr has been playing great and the defense is getting better. Now, there could be a bit of ease of schedule in there to help those numbers, but to hold Arkansas to 13 and then pick off CJ Bailey three times while also holding him to a season-low 186 yards is saying something. USC looms as the lone ranked team remaining on the slate, although that game at Pitt feels like it could be tougher than anticipated.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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