Even before at least three drones were reportedly spotted over a power plant in northern Belgium on Sunday evening, Brussels was on high alert.
A rash of drone sightings has led to repeated airport closures in the country, stranding thousands of passengers and grounding planes.
Belgium is the latest target in a string of mysterious drone incidents across Europe over airports and military sites — and some officials have directly pointed the finger at Russia. It has left authorities scrambling to boost defences.
Belgian media are reporting that the drones this weekend were seen over Doel nuclear power plant near the Port of Antwerp. CBC News has not yet been able to confirm these reports.
Unlike the multiple Russian drones that violated Polish airspace in September at the same time as a widespread air attack on Ukraine, there is very little known about the most recent sightings.
‘Element of whack-a-mole’
There is no indication that any of the drones involved in the recent sightings have been intercepted or have crashed.
“There is a sort of element of whack-a-mole or hide and seek here,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and the Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel.
“These drones, whoever launches them or wherever they are launched [from], they don’t linger, right? They enter … blocked airspaces and then they’re gone again.”
On Sunday, the head of Britain’s military said it was going to be sending experts and equipment to Belgium to help detect and defend against the drones.
The head of Britain’s armed forces, Richard Knighton, told the BBC that Belgium had asked for assistance, after the airport in Brussels was closed last Tuesday evening for hours as a result of drone sightings.
Belgium’s Liège Airport, which is primarily used for cargo traffic, had flights suspended multiple times last week — including on Sunday — after reports of drones.
In Germany, where drones grounded 17 flights at the Munich airport in October, authorities are assembling rapid-response teams to counter the threat, which the country’s defence minister has pinned on Russia.
In response to a question from a journalist on Friday, Boris Pistorius said he thought Belgium was being targeted because of the ongoing debate about using 140 billion euros ($226 billion Cdn) in Russia’s frozen assets to aid Ukraine. That money is being stored in a Belgian-based clearinghouse called Euroclear.
“This is a measure aimed at spreading insecurity, at fearmongering in Belgium: ‘Don’t you dare to touch the frozen assets,'” Pistorius said on Friday. “This cannot be interpreted any other way.”
Russia dismisses claims
Last month, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called any accusations against Russia for launching the drones unfounded, adding that “numerous politicians in Europe are now eager to blame Russia for any issue.”
The frequency of the drone sightings has become “quite unprecedented,” according to Guiseppe Spatafora, a research analyst at the EU Institute for Security Studies.
In an email to CBC, he said that while it might be difficult to find direct evidence of Russian involvement, there is a clear “novelty” to the countries experiencing drone disruptions — they have either taken significant steps to support Ukraine or are considering doing so.
When air traffic came to a halt in Copenhagen on Sept. 22, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called it “the most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date,” and that Russian involvement couldn’t be ruled out.
After that incident, Danish authorities said that whoever was operating the drones was “capable” and able to pilot them in different flight patterns. Police said at the time that officers decided against trying to shoot them down, given the risk to passengers at the airport and the fuel and planes on the runways.
Since the Danish incidents, there has been very little information released about the more recent European sightings, but officials have promised to beef up defences.
More NATO patrols
After Polish airspace was violated by around 20 Russian drones earlier this fall, NATO announced Eastern Sentry, a mission to step up aerial patrols in Poland using surveillance aircraft equipped with a large radar dome that allows the crew to see more than 500 kilometres in any direction.
While the system allows the crew to spot planes and ships at sea, smaller drones are a challenge.
NATO is on the lookout for airspace threats over eastern Europe as suspicious drone sightings continue to shut down airports. For The National, CBC’s Briar Stewart gets a closer look at the Operation Eastern Sentry mission and what it’s watching for in the skies
“We need to tweak our systems to be able to see those drones, because an aircraft, a normal aircraft, will not have the same radar return as small drones,” said Capt. Joel, an aircraft commander who is only being identified by his full name in line with NATO security protocol.
Joel spoke to CBC during a surveillance flight on Nov. 4, where a crew of 28 was focused on monitoring NATO’s eastern flank for any aerial incursions.
“The situation in Ukraine proved to us that during a tense situation, man can be creative to find new ways of fighting,” Joel said. “The concept we had five or 10 years ago evolved pretty quick …we need to evolve as well.”
When CBC asked a NATO public affairs officer how the Western military alliance has been involved in monitoring the most recent drone sightings, he replied that the information couldn’t be shared, as it is classified.
Deploying a drone wall
European Union officials who have been speaking for months about the need for a region-wide “drone wall” are now vowing to have one in place by 2027.
“I wouldn’t call it completely unrealistic, but let’s just call it very ambitious,” said Funk Kirkegaard.
He says one of the lessons from the battlefields of Ukraine over the past 3½ years is that it is exceedingly difficult to intercept waves of nimble, relatively cheap drones that can be deployed en masse.
He says Europe should instead narrow its focus, and concentrate on protecting critical infrastructure.
But he says there are decisions that need to be made about the risk of intervention — like shooting down a suspicious drone in an urban area.
“Even if we are able to shoot it down, what happens if it falls on a house?” he said.
“These are real-time decisions with a lot of uncertainties.”
