Sound Smart: 7 Observations from NFL Sunday in Week 11

You didn’t miss the Los Angeles Rams taking control of the NFC West … or the NFC … or really the whole NFL. You didn’t miss the Jacksonville Jaguars blowing out the Los Angeles Chargers. You didn’t miss the theatrical ending between the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings.

So let’s try to spin it forward, dive deeper and think outside the box about what we just saw. This is “Sound Smart,” where we prepare you for Monday morning with seven observations from the Sunday slate. If I do my job, you’ll be fluent in the NFL’s Week 11 action.

1. IF THERE’S ONLY ONE THING YOU SHOULD KNOW FROM SUNDAY … 

It’s that the Chiefs are in trouble.

This is not a drill. This is not a hot take. This is not an overreaction.

Nobody plays dead better than Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs. 

But their playoff chances are legitimately wounded. The Chiefs have a 57% chance of making the postseason, in part because their chances of winning the division dropped to 9%, per the New York Times’ projection model.

Their problems are layered. 

Before even looking at their roster, you can look at the factors that are beyond their control, because it looks like they might be one of those teams hoping for things (beyond their control) to break their way in Week 18 in order to make the postseason. Their division includes the 7-4 Chargers and the 9-2 Broncos. The Chiefs’ remaining schedule includes a mix of cupcakes (Cowboys, Titans, Raiders) and quality opponents (Colts, Chargers, Broncos, Texans). But those seven games don’t provide much ground for the Chiefs to gain on L.A. and the other wild-card teams like the Jaguars and Bills, both of which own the head-to-head tiebreaker over KC.

As for the Chiefs themselves, they lack the heroics of last year, unable to pull off fourth-quarter comebacks. The Chiefs have now lost all five of their one-possession games this year. That’s a stark turnaround for the team that won 17 one-possession games in a row. Their offense has beaten up on bad defenses (because … Mahomes) but has struggled to step up against legitimate challengers. The same is largely true of their own defense.

There seems to be a lack of urgency — on the season, and late in these games.

I’ve written it before. I’ll write it again. The Chiefs think Mahomes can save them. Every game. Every season.

What if this year, he can’t? What if this year, even he can’t drag them into the postseason?

2. LOST MY TRUST & EARNED MY TRUST

Lost My Trust: Browns QB Shedeur Sanders

When Dillon Gabriel left the game, he handed the Browns off to Shedeur Sanders with a lead. The Ravens were ripe for an upset, with Lamar Jackson looking fallible, thanks largely to Myles Garrett and the Cleveland defense. 

This was Shedeur’s moment. He didn’t even have to do anything special. He could help the Browns hold onto their lead and shepherd the team through an upset. Sanders had been actively drawing attention to the fact that he wasn’t seeing playing time. It would make sense that, given all that attention, he had done his job as a backup, which is to prepare like he was the starter.

Alas. 

Sanders looked completely out beyond his depth. The Ravens’ pressure was an immediate problem. He didn’t see the field well. He didn’t look like he knew what to do with the football. He took sacks for major yardage (rather than throw the ball away). He threw an interception that could’ve ended the game — if not for a Browns interception that gave him another chance. His final drive included some nice throws, including an incomplete pass that was nearly a touchdown to receiver Gage Larvadain.

Sanders has been asking for this chance. He wasn’t ready. He couldn’t make the quarterback situation complicated. In fact, he clarified the issue. For the time being, Gabriel is better suited for the Browns’ offense.

Earned My Trust: Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan

He finished the game with career highs in every single one of these categories:

12 targets
8 receptions
130 yards
2 touchdowns

He also had a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. 

Lining out in the slot and on the perimeter, he did it all. He logged catches inside the numbers and outside the numbers — in a perfect split. Four catches outside, four catches inside. And 65 yards outside, 65 inside. Somehow, it was a game of perfect symmetry.

He did all that against the NFL’s No. 1 passing defense. This was the type of game that legitimizes his spot as the No. 8 overall pick — and establishes him as a bona fide WR1.

3. WHO SPAT ON WHOM THIS WEEK?

Look, I’m surprised as you are that there have been multiple spitting incidents this year. But these NFL players can’t keep their saliva in their mouths. And if you want to sound smart on Monday, you gotta know who spat on whom.

Spitter: Ja’Marr Chase

Hit by spit: Jalen Ramsey

Intentional? Yup.

What happened next: Jalen Ramsey punched Chase in the face. (Never mind that Chase was wearing a helmet, and punching someone with a helmet is totally idiotic.) The Bengals and Steelers scrummed up and Chase ended up without a helmet. The loser, of course, was Ramsey, whom the officials ejected (covered in spit).

The kicker: Chase must not have felt all that vindicated. He finished the game with three catches for 30 yards.

What happens next? Chase could face a suspension, given that Jalen Carter got ejected and essentially served a one-game suspension for spitting. That would be a massive problem for the Bengals, who are trying to squeeze their way into the playoffs with the future help of Joe Burrow (hoping to return from injury around Thanksgiving). There’s a chance there’s no suspension. We’ve seen players simply pay major fines, though you’d have to go all the way back to Terrell Owens spitting on DeAngelo Hall back in 2006. That was worth $35,000. How do we adjust that for inflation and the salary cap boom?

4. BLIND PASSING CHART TEST: WHO DID THIS?

5. WHAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AFRAID TO SAY: 

Josh Allen was amazing Sunday, but this isn’t going to end well for the Bills.

Not long ago, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady called Josh Allen a “mistake eraser.” 

That version of Allen is back.

That version of Allen isn’t always good. His flashy playmaking is sort of like wasabi. (Yeah, that stuff that comes with your sushi.) A little bit too much and it ruins everything. It’s too strong. It stings the nostrils. But if you don’t use Wasabi, then you’re missing out. There’s not as much flavor. There’s not as much fun.

Last year, Allen had a better team around him and he found the right balance of playmaking. But because his team this year is consistently letting him down, Allen has to do too much. That means his playmaking attempts will go too far. And they’ll look like this:

But that also means Allen will do multiple incredible things — every game. He’ll do those things because he feels like he must. It’s a trade-off. I’ve watched enough Allen to know that, with this type of Bills team, you can’t have one thing without the other.

Maybe you know all this. Because we’ve seen it all before. But that’s what concerns me most about this team. We’ve seen it all before. I don’t think they can beat the Chiefs in the postseason. And that’s not even their biggest problem. I don’t know if they can beat the Patriots or the Colts in the postseason either given their current state. 

Their defense is the worst its been since the emergence of Allen. It’s old and slow and it can’t defend the run. And there isn’t enough around Allen on offense. When the postseason rolls around, it’s hard to imagine Allen doing it all for as many as four games in a row. 

6. RANDOM RANKING

Examining the most (immediately) impactful deals from the trade deadline:

(Keep in mind, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will make his Cowboys debut Monday night.)

1. Eagles edge Jaelan Phillips: He has been just what Philly needed on defense, both as an edge-setting run defender and as a pass-rusher. This is the guy Vic Fangio set up for a huge year in 2023. Peak Phillips is back. And at the time of publication, he led the Eagles in tackles and had registered their lone sack through the first half of Sunday night’s game versus the Lions.
2. Colts CB Sauce Gardner: The best thing you can say about a cornerback is that — on first watch — you barely noticed they were there. That was what happened with Sauce in his Indy debut. Against the Falcons last week, Gardner allowed just one catch on three targets, per PFF. He also added a PBU. There were two notable issues: He allowed a two-point conversion and dropped a pick-six. And still, that’s a dang-good place to start.
3. Jaguars WR Jakobi Meyers: In the dark years in New England, Meyers was often the lone offensive bright spot. Mac Jones might have been struggling enormously, but he always seemed to find Meyers, a massively reliable presence. He did something similar in Las Vegas, but flew mostly under the radar. But it was perfectly fitting that Meyers would go to the Jaguars, where the receivers have been anything but reliable for Trevor Lawrence. In his second game with the Jagaurs, he led the team in receptions (five) and receiving yards (64). It might not seem notable, but it’s a big deal. Receivers never seem to make an impact after moving teams at the trade deadline. It’s just too hard to get them up to speed on the offense. But maybe Meyers will buck that trend.
4. Steelers safety Kyle Dugger: This pick-six speaks volumes about what Dugger can do for the Steelers defense.
5. Bengals QB Joe Flacco: He’s 1-3 as a starter for the Bengals, so it’s hard to say, “Flacco is really making a difference!” Because: Is he? But I’ll say this for the Bengals’ unc: He’s playing surprisingly well. Most quarterback trades are a disaster and the guy looks totally swamped. There are plays where Flacco looks like that, but he has done an admirable job running a prolific offense and contending with a godawful defense.
6. Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed: With the Seahawks driving for a game-winning field-goal attempt, Shaheed caught a pass and alertly called for a timeout with one second remaining. Seattle missed the kick, but the Shaheed reception was notable nonetheless.

7. TOMORROW’S CONTROVERSY

Justin Jefferson is not happy with the state of the Vikings offense. And it’s bigger than just the quarterback.

J.J. McCarthy’s late heroics weren’t enough to make up for his and the Vikings’ extensive shortcomings in their 19-17 loss to the Bears. And Justin Jefferson was clearly upset throughout Sunday’s struggles.

During the game, the FOX broadcast captured the receiver showing rare moments of frustration on the field. On multiple occasions, he was clearly holding himself back from spiking and slamming his helmet. He clapped his hands in anger after a missed opportunity.

It wouldn’t be notable for an emotive wideout, but that’s not Jefferson — an always steady, positive guy.

So you get it: this is unusual.

“Definitely frustration. We only scored one touchdown the entire game,” Jefferson said postgame. “Really, we only got down there one time and that was off a special teams play. … At the end of the day, when it all counted and it all mattered, J.J. stepped up.”

The team’s struggles start with quarterback J.J. McCarthy, but they do not end with him. Receiver Jordan Addison had two drops in crucial moments. So did T.J. Hockenson. The Vikings defense couldn’t sack Bears quarterback Caleb Williams until the 45th minute. The Vikings special teams unit allowed Devin Duvernay to return the ball into field goal range on Chicago’s final drive, so “Cardiac Caleb” got credited with another fourth-quarter comeback without really having to do anything for the game-winning points.

The Vikings’ issues — both in this game and on the season — don’t exclusively boil down to their quarterback, even if people will point to McCarthy’s poor play. Because he has been really bad. There’s no doubt about that. But he was sold a bill of goods, which was that the Vikings were going to support him, and they simply haven’t done that.

So it’s easy to imagine Jefferson is upset with the quarterback. With the coach. With the defense. With the special teams unit. Probably in that order. There’s blame to go around.

At least Sam Darnold, the guy they let leave, threw four picks.

*ANSWER: BLIND PASSING CHART TEST — Bryce Young

Against the Falcons, who had allowed 162.3 passing yards per game (fewest in the NFL), Young threw for 448 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in an overtime win. 

Figures, right?

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna. 

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!