College Football Week 2 Picks, Preview: What To Expect in Cy-Hawk, Michigan-OU

Joel Klatt

Lead College Football Analyst

Week 2 of the college football season might not provide us with the same headline-grabbing trio of top-10 showdowns we got in the opener, but don’t sleep on this Saturday’s slate. These are the kinds of weeks that quietly shape the playoff picture — the ones that plant the seeds for narratives, conference hierarchies, and the data points the selection committee leans on come December.

The annual “Cy-Hawk” game between Iowa and No. 16 Iowa State is among that handful of intriguing games that could help us understand the depth of the Big Ten and Big 12 this season.

I won’t make a pick for that game, but I have picks I want to make for five other games. So, after going 1-4 against the spread last week, let’s dive into it and hope that we see some improvement in Week 2 (I always say that the most improvement comes from Week 1 to Week 2). 

Iowa vs. No. 16 Iowa State (Noon ET Saturday on FOX and the FOX Sports app)

Iowa State has already got a couple of quality wins under its belt, first beating Kansas State in Ireland before blowing out South Dakota last week. Rocco Becht’s experience came into play in the Cyclones’ win over the Wildcats, with the quarterback making some plays down the stretch in that game as Iowa State is still working to replace a pair of NFL wide receivers (Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel). 

Becht is one of the better players in college football, with that Week 0 win being just another moment where he showed up in crunch time. He’s got five fourth-quarter comebacks, so there’s a feeling around Iowa State that if it can keep the game close, Becht can make the plays necessary to win. He might be asked to do that again on Saturday.

Rocco Becht has helped Iowa State get off to a 2-0 start. (Photo By Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

Taking a bigger picture look at Iowa State, head coach Matt Campbell now has everything he needs and wants to be competitive at the top-end of the Big 12. Obviously, there are still some challenges, but he understands what his philosophy is and how he’s going to go about it. So, this is going to be a team that’s always going to be extremely well-coached, and when they have the talent and experience like they do this year, they’ll be tough to beat, especially at home. 

Flipping things around, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz actually has a chance to make history on Saturday. With one more win, he’ll become the all-time winningest coach in Big Ten history. Of course, Ferentz has built his Iowa teams over the years with a clear identity: a fundamentally sound team that has a physically run-oriented attack offensively to go with quality and experienced defense. As a matter of fact, when I looked at Iowa’s two-deep, a high number of its defensive players have been in the program for at least a few years. 

Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker’s unit typically maintains its level of defense, meaning that it won’t allow one open crease for the opposing offense to make a big play. However, in last year’s “Cy-Hawk” matchup, Iowa State had some big plays en route to winning the game. 

Still, I expect that Iowa defense to play well on Saturday. And this time around, the Hawkeyes have a quarterback who I think can have a big season. Mark Gronowski won his 50th college game in Week 1 after being a standout at South Dakota State, where he won two FCS titles and the Walter Payton Award. Gronowski didn’t put up amazing stats in Week 1, but he didn’t need to as the Hawkwyes rushed for over 300 yards against Albany. This is an Iowa team with an underrated offensive line and a great backfield, so it won’t always need Gronowski to make plays.

Mark Gronowski has had success at the FCS level. Can he be Iowa’s answer at quarterback this season? (Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

This game will be a war. It always is. I anticipate that this will be a low-scoring game that will be pretty close in the final minutes. If it is, pinch me because those games are always fun to call.

No. 15 Michigan vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET) 

Remember what I said about conference narratives being formed this week? This is a big one in the Big Ten vs. SEC narrative. 

This is the first big test for two programs that revamped their offenses after a disappointing 2024 on that side of the ball. For Michigan, this will mark true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood’s first road start. Obviously, that’s noteworthy as you have no real way to create that sort of environment in the practices leading up to that game. That’s a great environment Underwood is going into as Oklahoma seeks to create some early momentum before dealing with a gauntlet of an SEC schedule. 

Bryce Underwood will make his first road start on Saturday. (Photo by Raj Mehta/Getty Images)

As I previously touched on, Underwood had a solid showing in his college debut. He looked as good as a freshman could look, making decisive throws and knowing what he was looking at. That decisiveness will be important as Oklahoma’s defense is much more creative, aggressive and athletic than what he saw against New Mexico. 

And while this is Underwood’s first road start, I actually think Michigan is going to need to lean on him throwing the ball and his athleticism as a runner. We didn’t really see Michigan deploy Underwood as a runner last week, with running back Justice Haynes having a big game in his Wolverines debut (159 yards, three touchdowns). If Michigan can get a lead early, that would allow it to at least utilize the run game a bit more.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, has some experience with its new quarterback. John Mateer came in from Washington State in what I thought was one of the top transfer moves of the offseason. He’s also working with the same offensive coordinator he had at Washington State last season, Ben Arbuckle. That familiarity is crucial early in the season because Mateer didn’t have to learn any new schematic language over the offseason. In turn, Mateer had an impressive Oklahoma debut in Week 1, throwing for 392 yards and scoring four total touchdowns in the win over Illinois State.

John Mateer gives Oklahoma a dual-threat option at quarterback. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

What was concerning from that game, though, was that Oklahoma didn’t run the ball too well. It only rushed for 3.2 yards per carry and Jadyn Ott, who was a big transfer addition from Cal, only played four snaps. Brent Venables claims that Ott’s low usage was planned, saying they want to ease him in due to his explosiveness. But it has me wondering about Ott’s health.

The one big thing to pay attention to in this game is Michigan linebacker Jaishawn Barham’s suspension for the first half. Barham will miss the first half due to a targeting penalty (which I do not agree with) that he was called for in the second half of Michigan’s win over New Mexico. After speaking with some Michigan folks, they feel they’ll be able to weather Barham’s absence because they feel pretty good about their linebacker depth. 

Still, I think Oklahoma wins this game, but slightly.

Pick: Oklahoma 28, Michigan 24 (Michigan +5.5)

Kansas vs. Missouri (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET) 

The Border War is back for the first time since 2011! 

Focusing on the quarterbacks, when Jalon Daniels is playing well for Kansas, the Jayhawks are a very dangerous team. They were pretty good late last year because Daniels regained his top form. If he shows that on Saturday, a Kansas win would show us how good the top end of the Big 12 is this season. 

As for Missouri, former Penn State quarterback Beau Pribula will be making his first real start against a real opponent. If he’s able to lead Missouri to a win over Kansas at home, the Tigers’ schedule might look a lot easier for the rest of the season and a path to a 10-win season. 

Just like Michigan-Oklahoma, I think the home team wins but the road team covers.

Pick: Missouri 34, Kansas 31 (Kansas +6.5)

Oregon is a massive 28.5-point favorite in this game, but there are a few reasons why I think it’ll cover the spread. Mike Gundy poked the bear this week with his comments about Oregon’s budget. Oklahoma State will also start backup Zane Flores at quarterback this week, which obviously isn’t ideal against this Oregon defense.

As for Oregon, Dante Moore might eventually end up being better than Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel. I know that sounds wild, but he’s got that type of talent. Even if Moore and the rest of Oregon’s starters’ day ends early, the Ducks have one of the deepest rosters in the sport. 

Dante Moore is in his first season as Oregon’s starting quarterback after backing up Dillon Gabriel last season. (Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)

Pick: Oregon 45, Oklahoma State 10 (Oregon -28.5)

Baylor vs. No. 17 SMU (Saturday, noon ET) 

That loss against Auburn has to be a tough one for Baylor because, in a lot of ways, I would assume that the Bears felt they let one get away. They got stopped twice inside the 15-yard line and gave up a kickoff return touchdown. 

Baylor can throw it everywhere, with quarterback Sawyer Robertson having another standout performance last week despite the loss. So, I’m not too concerned about its offense. 

As for SMU, I think we’ve overlooked what it lost in the offseason. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is back, but it only has two returning starters on defense. 

So, I think Baylor is the better team heading into this matchup. 

Pick: Baylor 38, SMU 34 (Baylor +2.5)

You’d think that Illinois should win this game, but the Fighting Illini are only favored by 2.5. Once you start to look at this game, you understand why Illinois is only a slight favorite. When Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer last faced a Manny Diaz defense, he threw four interceptions in a loss to Penn State in 2023. 

Will Diaz be able to force Altmyer into making the same mistakes? It’ll be fascinating to see, and I think Duke is a really decent team. I like its quarterback, Darian Mensah, and Diaz has done a really solid job with that program. 

Still, I think Illinois’ experience will help it prevail in a low-scoring game.

Pick: Illinois 21, Duke 17 (Illinois -2.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.

Get more from the College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more