If Russia isn’t stopped in Ukraine, Britain will face a Europe reshaped by Russian power, and a global order that rewards aggression rather than punishes it. That is the simple, brutal truth too many in Westminster and Brussels are unwilling to confront. A victorious Russia doesn’t just conquer land; it changes the rules of the entire continent. And Britain, for all its mythology about the Channel as a natural shield, is no longer insulated. The moat is smaller, weaker and more ineffective than at any time in the post-war era.
We can see this clearly on our own southern coastline. Tens of thousands of migrants arrive on our shores every year in inflatable dinghies, and we appear unable to stop them. This isn’t about blaming those who risk the crossing; it’s about acknowledging what the phenomenon tells us about our maritime security.
If we cannot control our borders in peacetime against unarmed civilians, what confidence can we possibly have that we could deter a hostile state determined to probe those same weaknesses?
People dismiss the comparison, but it is strategically valid: if our coastline can be penetrated nightly by rubber boats, how long before malign actors exploit the same vulnerability? Not in the form of 1940-style troop ships, but through covert operatives, weapons, destabilisation tools. Chaos is a method, and Russia understands it better than most.
A Europe shaped by Russian victory is not just bleak for Ukraine; it is dangerous for us. Moscow would become the dominant military and political force on the continent, not because it would immediately launch new invasions, but because fear would do much of the heavy lifting.
Eastern European states — the Baltics, Poland, Romania — would begin to doubt the reliability of NATO’s Article 5 guarantees. The alliance only works when every member believes it is absolute. If Russia demonstrates that it can rewrite borders through force and survive the consequences, smaller nations may start hedging, softening their positions, or cutting quiet deals to avoid antagonising the Kremlin.
NATO frays. Europe fractures. And Britain becomes more exposed. And the sad truth is that, under Trump’s transactional approach to geopolitics, Europe can no longer rely on the USA as a dependable ally.
It appears that he would sell his own grandmother to seal a deal. The assumption that Washington will automatically come to Europe’s defence has evaporated. Trump’s worldview is simple: alliances are useful only when they benefit him personally or politically. That uncertainty alone emboldens Moscow.
Putin sees the cracks widening across the Atlantic and recognises opportunity. A Europe forced to stand alone is a Europe far easier for Russia to intimidate. And Britain, outside the EU and with a hollowed-out military, cannot pretend it will be unaffected.
Our Armed Forces are already stretched thin. Years of under-investment have left the Army too small, ammunition stocks depleted, and procurement painfully slow.
The Channel cannot protect us from Russian missiles, drones, cyberattacks or energy coercion. And those are precisely the tools a triumphant Kremlin would expand. Moscow has spent two decades perfecting hybrid warfare.
It will use cyberattacks to target our financial sector, sow political division, disrupt critical infrastructure and undermine public trust. It doesn’t need boots on British soil to damage British security.
The economic dimension is just as threatening. Russia has already demonstrated a willingness to weaponise energy. Give it more land, more leverage and a distracted, divided West, and it will do so again.
We have already felt the shockwaves of Europe’s energy insecurity; a victorious Russia ensures that instability becomes permanent. For a country like Britain — whose economy relies on steady markets and predictable supply chains — that is a strategic nightmare.
And looming over all of this is the wider geopolitical message. If Putin wins, China will draw the obvious conclusion. Western resolve is inconsistent; might works; the international rules-based order is optional. In such a world, middle powers like Britain struggle to maintain influence and protect their interests.
But the most alarming question remains: why would Russia stop? Nothing in Putin’s behaviour suggests restraint. He has violated every promise, broken every ceasefire, shredded every agreement.
He has deployed chemical agents on British soil, interfered in Western elections, weaponised refugees and energy supplies, and targeted civilians without hesitation. At no stage has the West imposed consequences severe enough to force a rethink. From Putin’s perspective, persistence pays.
This is why Ukraine matters so deeply. Not in symbolic terms, but in strategic reality. Ukraine is the dam. If it collapses, the resulting flood will reshape Europe to Britain’s detriment for decades.
And that forces Britain to confront the question too many leaders dodge: are we acting like Chamberlain, hoping diplomacy can placate a predator? Or like Churchill, recognising the danger early and preparing the nation accordingly?
The cost of drift rises daily. The moat is shrinking. The threats are growing. And Putin — along with every adversary watching — is waiting to see whether Britain still possesses the resolve to act before the tide turns.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
