The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised India’s growth forecast upward by 0.2 percentage points, projecting a 6.6 per cent expansion for the 2025-26 fiscal year. The revision reflects the country’s strong growth momentum, which is helping offset the impact of high US tariffs on Indian exports.
India’s economy grew at a surprising 7.8 per cent in April-June, driven primarily by robust private consumption, allowing India to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy, even as the export outlook remains uncertain due to steep 50 per cent tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.
India’s financial year runs from April to March.
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However, the IMF lowered India’s growth forecast for the 2026/27 fiscal year by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2 per cent. The report, released in Washington, highlighted that rising US tariffs could weigh on India’s exports and overall growth.
The IMF’s upward revision comes shortly after the World Bank raised its own forecast for India’s 2025-26 growth to 6.5 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent. At the same time, the World Bank trimmed its projection for the next fiscal year by 20 basis points to 6.3 per cent, also citing the impact of US tariffs on Indian goods.
