Gold prices have shown an upward movement over the last few months, leaving investors with over 30 per cent annual gains in both 2024 and 2025. This indicates that the market is nearing a consolidation phase, say analysts.
Mumbai-based Motilal Oswal Wealth Management (MOWM) and global research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, now expect limited near-term upside for bullion.
What is driving the rally?
BMI recently published a report stating, “We maintain our 2025 gold price forecast at an annual average of $3,100/oz, and are neutral towards prices for the coming months.” Despite recent geopolitical spikes, including the Israel-Iran escalation in June, BMI believes most of the geopolitical premium is already priced in.
It highlighted that gold touched a seven-week intraday high of $3,451/oz on June 16 after Israel’s strike on Iran but failed to breach the earlier record of $3,500/oz seen in April. “Only a full-blown regional war — unlikely at this stage — could drive prices beyond $4,000/oz,” BMI noted, warning that prices could dip towards $3,000/oz without fresh triggers.
Motilal Oswal: “We call it quits”
In a sharply titled note “Gold bull run: We call it quits”, MOWM said several tailwinds — including geopolitical risks, inflationary pressure, and a weak US dollar — have already been factored into the current rally.
“Comex gold has never gained more than 32 per cent in a single year in the last 25 years. With prices already elevated, the market seems fatigued,” the brokerage said, hinting at a possible period of consolidation. It added that for gold to rise further, new and meaningful catalysts must emerge.
JP Morgan remains bullish: $4,000/oz in sight
In contrast, JP Morgan Research remains strongly bullish. It projects gold to average $3,675/oz in Q4 2025 and climb towards $4,000/oz by Q2 2026. “We remain deeply convinced of a continued structural bull case for gold and raise our price targets accordingly,” said Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan.
Kaneva pointed to recession probabilities, central bank buying, and trade-related uncertainty under a potential Trump administration as drivers that could keep gold buoyant. “We expect a floor around $2,800/oz,” she added.
What’s next for gold?
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On July 2, spot gold was seen at $3,335.52/oz while August futures were at $3,345.35/oz.
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Gold futures on MCX in India were around Rs 97,101 per 10 gm.
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MOWM and BMI are both of the opinion that the policy posture of the US Fed and macroeconomic indications would be pivotal to the direction of prices going forward.
While some analysts are calling time on gold’s historic bull run, others remain convinced of further upside in 2025–26. For investors, the key lies in watching US Fed moves, central bank demand, and geopolitical triggers.
