In the 12-team College Football Playoff, only 33 teams have a path to the postseason.
Move that to a 24-team model, and suddenly 42 programs are alive. The dream stays alive longer — chaos thrives deeper into November.
Every weekend from here on out is a knockout round, as the committee cuts pretenders from contenders. But in a 24-team CFP, a hot finish could erase a slow start. Win late, and you’re in.
Believe it or not, in that expanded world, Arizona, Wake Forest, and even Hawaii could still crash the bracket alongside Ohio State and Texas A&M.
In August, the Big Ten and others began “populating” the idea of an expanded College Football Playoff of 24 or 28 teams. The 24-team model, which seems to have the most support in private circles, would include:Â
- Four automatic qualifiers from each of the Power 4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC)
- Two automatic qualifiers from the Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Pac-12)
- Six at-large selections to be made by the College Football Playoff selection committee — the only selections the committee gets to make
Which begs the question: How would the 24-team CFP look if the tournament began today?
In my analysis of a 24-team format, 32 Power 4 programs — including nine from the SEC, eight from the Big 12, eight from the ACC, seven from the Big Ten — would still have a path to the postseason. And that’s before factoring in Notre Dame or the Group of 6 contenders.
Heading into Week 12 of the season, teams that have proven themselves in conference play still have just as much opportunity to win it all as No. 1 Ohio State. That’s a huge win for the sport. It creates a more democratic system for determining the best team, with less debate and more certainty.
The scoreboard has more agency.Â
And fans have the best chance in the sport’s history to see their team play for — and win — a national title.
Here’s how it works:
This 24-team format features 18 automatic qualifiers
I’ve set it up to look like what you’ll read below and stand in to represent the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The top four teams from each of the Power 4 conferences, based on conference standings, automatically qualify for the CFP. The two highest-ranked Group of 6 teams — not necessarily conference champions — also receive automatic bids. The remaining six at-large spots are filled at the selection committee’s discretion.
Teams are seeded by the selection committee
As the personification of the selection committee, I am encouraged to take into account head-to-head matchups, strength of record, coaching, personnel and quality of out-of-conference play when seeding teams.
Winning a conference championship is a strong indicator for a top-seeded team.
Winning a conference title does not automatically qualify a team for a higher seed than a non-conference champion.
The 24-team playoff’s greatest strength is the addition of two rounds of home games
My top 25, which you can read here, is the basis on which these seedings are assigned.
The first two rounds of a 24-team playoff would feature two rounds of home games. The four teams that advance through the opening rounds will play their next game at a New Year’s Six Bowl in a neutral site semifinal.Â
Teams seeded No. 1 to No. 8 get a bye and a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 9 to No. 16 each open the tournament with a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 17 to No. 24 each must play on the road twice to advance to the neutral site quarterfinals.
I need to summarize this, because it’s the best aspect of the 24-team CFP: 16 different campuses host home playoff games.Â
With that, here is a look at the Week 12 24-team CFP bracket:
FIRST-ROUND BYE, SECOND-ROUND HOME GAME
1. Ohio State (9-0)
The Buckeyes lead all FBS teams in points allowed at 65, which is 53 fewer than the next team (San Diego State). For perspective, in 2021, Georgia allowed 59 points through the first nine games of the season.
2. Indiana (10-0)
The Hoosiers have a point differential of +191 in conference games, which is the highest of any team against conference opponents in the FBS.
3. Texas A&M (9-0)
The Aggies are the only FBS team to allow eight or fewer sacks on offense, while also recording 30-plus sacks on defense.
4. Alabama (8-1)
If the Crimson Tide defeat Oklahoma this weekend, they will become just the sixth team since 1980 to beat four AP top-15 opponents within their first 10 games of the season— joining 2019 LSU, 1997 Michigan, 1988 Miami, 1984 Texas, and 1980 Notre Dame.
5. Oregon (8-1)
The Ducks are one of just three FBS teams to average 38-plus points per game and allow fewer than 14 points per game, along with Indiana and Texas Tech.
6. Georgia (8-1)
Since 2017, the Bulldogs are 51-2 at home and 13-1 vs. AP ranked opponents in that span.
7. Ole Miss (9-1)
The Rebels will be favored in their last two games of the season against Florida and Mississippi State. If they win both games, their 11-1 record would be the third-best regular-season record in school history— trailing only a 9-0 record in 1962 and 9-0-1 record in 1960.
8. Texas Tech (9-1), Previously Ranked: 9
The Red Raiders are 9-1 or better for just the second time since 2000 (they started 10-0 in 2008).
FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME
9. BYU (8-1), Previously Ranked: 8
The loss to Texas Tech doesn’t eliminate the Cougars from CFP contention — something that might happen in a 12-team field. If they win out, they can still reach the Big 12 title game. In a 24-team playoff, it’s hard to imagine any Power 4 team that makes its conference championship missing the CFP.
10. Texas (7-2, at-large)
Texas’ showdown with Georgia on Saturday could make or break its season. In a 12-team CFP, a loss would likely end the Longhorns’ hopes in a crowded race for an automatic bid. But in a 24-team playoff, their closing stretch — at Georgia, vs. Arkansas, and vs. Texas A&M — could all but secure a postseason berth instead of shutting them out.
11. Oklahoma (7-2, at-large)
Oklahoma has a real shot to do what no SEC team has done this season — knock off Alabama. A win could even put the Sooners ahead of Texas, despite that head-to-head loss, even if the Longhorns take down Georgia.
Still, Oklahoma might wind up as the cutoff point for teams missing the 12-team CFP, even with nine wins against a brutal slate. In a 24-team format, though, that kind of season would probably earn the Sooners a home playoff game.
12. Notre Dame (7-2, at-large)
The Fighting Irish have played like a team expecting to return to the national title game over their last seven contests. But losses to Texas A&M and Miami still loom large as Notre Dame faces another must-win test against a quality opponent in Pittsburgh.
13. Vanderbilt (8-2, at-large)
The Commodores’ losses have come against two top-25 teams, one of them undefeated in conference play (Alabama). That remains true, but needing overtime to beat an Auburn squad missing its head coach and having benched its starting quarterback for much of the season isn’t ideal. And compared to Texas and Oklahoma, Vanderbilt’s remaining schedule isn’t nearly as demanding.
In a 12-team format, Vandy might lose out in a résumé contest. But in a proposed 24-team CFP, there’s enough room for the Commodores to stumble and still have a path not only to make the playoff but potentially host a first-round game.
14. Georgia Tech (8-1)
Georgia Tech’s 48-36 loss to NC State leaves the ACC wide open and means the only guaranteed path to the CFP is winning the ACC championship game. With four teams tied for first place, the league is too competitive to get just one team in the playoff — but that’s likely the reality in a 12-team playoff.
15. Michigan (7-2, at-large), Previously Ranked: 17
The Wolverines are hanging onto an at-large spot in both a 12- and 24-team playoff picture after losses to Oklahoma and USC. But a 10-win season capped by a win over No. 1 Ohio State would probably be enough to get them into either postseason tournament.
16. Pittsburgh (7-2), Previously Ranked: 20
Pitt has a chance to earn its best non-conference win of the season when it faces Notre Dame on Saturday, while still keeping its path to the ACC championship game alive with two wins to close out the year. A loss for Notre Dame would almost certainly leave the Panthers on the outside looking in under the 12-team format. However, it’s conceivable that both teams could make the 24-team CFP if this game is close and each wins their remaining games.
ON THE ROAD
17. Utah (7-2, at-large), Previously Ranked: 21
at Pittsburgh
The Utes have losses to the top two teams in the Big 12 — Texas Tech and BYU — but could still climb to the top of the league if either of those teams drops two of their final three games, opening the door for a 10-win Utah team to reach the conference title game.
18. Virginia (8-2), Previously Ranked: 15
at Michigan
With quarterback Chandler Morris leaving the game early after taking a hit to the head, the Cavaliers became a one-dimensional team in their loss to Wake Forest. Perhaps it was an Icarus moment for a program that still has much to prove before it can be considered a true national title contender.
19. USC (7-2), Previously Ranked: NR
at Georgia Tech
The Trojans picked up a much-needed win over Northwestern on Friday night. With Iowa and Oregon still left on the schedule, USC could finish as one of the Big Ten’s top four teams.
20. North Texas (8-1), Previously Ranked: 23
at Vanderbilt
North Texas’ only loss is to South Florida — a team that has been ranked at one point or another by every major poll — and the Mean Green still have a clear pth to the American Conference Championship, with only UAB, Rice and Temple remaining on the schedule.
21. James Madison (9-1), Previously Ranked: NR
at Notre Dame
The Dukes are undefeated in conference play and have scored at least 35 points in each of their last three games.
22. SMU (7-3), Previously Ranked: NR
at Oklahoma
The Mustangs’ impressive upset of Miami put them back in the ACC title race, and they received more help with Virginia and Louisville taking on losses over the weekend.
23. Cincinnati (7-2), Previously Ranked: 24
at Texas
Cincinnati has a difficult path to the CFP in a 12-team playoff, with three teams ahead of it in the Big 12 standings. But in a 24-team format, the Bearcats would have a much clearer route to a CFP berth — and potentially, the national title game.
24. Houston (8-2), Previously Ranked: NR
at BYU
The Cougars were helped by BYU’s loss to the Red Raiders, and also by TCU’s loss to Iowa State over the weekend. There’s little room for error, though, for the remainder of the season.
Above is how the CFP would look if it ended today, but there will be changes and teams not included in the bracket that still have a chance to earn entry into the tournament.
Teams on the bubble have taken on losses, but not enough losses for them not to crawl into the top quarter of their conference, and, with 10 or even just nine wins in the regular season, could find themselves into an automatic qualifier spot.
Every game matters. Rivalry games matter more.
No one in Columbus, Ohio, needs to be reminded that the Buckeyes haven’t won “The Game” since 2019, and a win for a Michigan team that has won eight games heading into “The Game” this season could almost certainly mean the Wolverines would be in the CFP.
Texas A&M, which hasn’t won a conference title this century or a national title since 1939, will have to stare down their arch nemesis, Texas, with what could be a spot in the SEC Championship on the line for the Aggies, and a spot in the CFP for the Longhorns.Â
Good, Old-Fashioned Hate. The rivalry between Georgia Tech and Georgia this year makes it conceivable that a loss to the Yellow Jackets could see the Dawgs left out of the CFP for the first time in three years.
The 24-team CFP takes on the best aspects of the November rivalry: home and away games played on campuses across the country where atmosphere, emotion and pageantry are unmatched.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.
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