USC, Illinois Face Program-Defining Test in Big Noon Showdown

RJ Young

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

When USC travels to Illinois for “Big Noon Saturday,” it won’t just be a ranked matchup, it will be a referendum on where each program is headed.

Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are off to a 4–0 start, riding the momentum of a high-scoring offense and looking to prove this team can compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Bret Bielema’s Illinois team is reeling from a crushing 53-point loss to Indiana that raised plenty of questions.

FOX Sports college football writers RJ Young and Michael Cohen preview this weekend’s Big Noon showdown between USC and Illinois:

1. USC sits at 4-0 and is looking to cement itself as a legitimate CFP contender. Meanwhile, Illinois is coming off a humiliating 53-point loss to Indiana. Knowing that, which team needs a win more this weekend, and why?

RJ Young: If USC loses on Saturday, it will be a shock to the Trojans. They’re 6-0 in Champaign, Illinois, and this Lincoln Riley team looks and feels like his Oklahoma teams that won conference titles and played in the College Football Playoff. It’s also a perfect spot for his latest pupil at quarterback, Jayden Maiava.

With Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer sidelined for multiple weeks following surgery on his right hand on Wednesday, Maiava has a prime opportunity to leap to the front of the Heisman conversation with a standout performance. He currently ranks second only to Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza in total touchdowns (16). Illinois’ Luke Altmyer might have been in the same conversation — boasting 10 touchdowns and no turnovers — but his team is still struggling to find its footing in the win column.

A loss for USC would reinforce the narrative that’s taken shape since Lincoln Riley’s arrival in 2022: a program that’s solid, but not built to win championships. For Illinois, a loss could mark the start of a downward spiral that is tough to stop.

Michael Cohen: This is a fascinating question because of the vast differences in remaining strength of schedule for both programs. Formulating an argument for Illinois badly needing a bounceback victory is fairly simple: The stench from last week’s 63-10 loss to then-No. 19 Indiana won’t dissipate any time soon, especially if the Illini stumble again this week. So much of the goodwill and belief that surrounded head coach Bret Bielema’s team during the spring and summer — when many folks projected Illinois as a potential CFP contender — evaporated on a nationally televised stage last Saturday when the Hoosiers dissected them with one touchdown after another, including a momentum-shifting score on special teams.

If Indiana represents the standard for what it takes to reach the CFP, then the beatdown it inflicted on Illinois shows just how far Bielema’s team has to go. And the nature of Illinois’ conference schedule is such that the Illini won’t have many more chances to rebuild faith in the eyes of the selection committee. Outside of this week’s date with No. 21 USC, the only other ranked opponent Illinois will face is No. 1 Ohio State in early October. Bielema’s group must beat the Trojans to salvage its postseason résumé. 

The case for USC, meanwhile, lives on the opposite end of the scheduling spectrum. Beginning this weekend, the Trojans have a brutal run of games from now through the first Saturday in November that will almost certainly dictate the trajectory of their season: at No. 23 Illinois, home vs. No. 19 Michigan, at No. 22 Notre Dame, at Nebraska. By the time head coach Lincoln Riley and his team have navigated that gauntlet, their record could be anywhere from 8-0 to 4-4 given the relatively weak competition USC has faced thus far.

Lincoln Riley, Head Coach of USC Trojan Football reacts during a game between Georgia Southern Eagles and USC. (Photo by Melinda Meijer/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

The Trojans also have an extremely difficult two-week stretch in mid-November with games against Iowa (home) and No. 6 Oregon (away) before the regular season finale against lowly UCLA. So while Riley and Co. will still have plenty of chances to score marquee victories, even if Saturday’s tilt with Illinois goes awry, the Illini might be the most vulnerable of the four ranked teams left on USC’s schedule. Now is the time to strike. 

2. Can Illinois bounce back mentally after last week’s blowout loss, or has Indiana exposed a flaw that USC’s high-scoring offense can now exploit?

Michael Cohen: It might be more than just a single flaw that Indiana exposed in its savage undressing of Illinois last weekend. Let’s start with the Illini’s offense, which only gained 161 total yards and averaged an anemic 3.6 yards per play against the Hoosiers. Coming into the season, Illinois’ offensive line was supposed to be among the team’s biggest strengths. Head coach Bret Bielema and his staff were positively giddy about bringing back all five starters from a team that won 10 games last season, headlined by All-Big Ten left tackle JC Davis. 

On Saturday night, however, Illinois’ veteran-laden offensive line proved incapable of protecting quarterback Luke Altmyer when facing a talented defensive front. The Hoosiers rampaged into the backfield for seven sacks, 10 tackles for loss and 17 quarterback pressures that rendered moot anything Illinois hoped to accomplish. That presents quite the problem for a group that is now preparing to face a USC defense tied for first nationally in sacks with 16. Altmyer better buckle his chinstrap. 

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is looking to have a bounce-back game after a 63-10 loss to Indiana. (Photo by Caleb Bowlin/Getty Images)

The flaws on defense are equally concerning, especially given the potential season-ending injury for All-Big Ten defensive back Xavier Scott, who underwent surgery on Wednesday. An undermanned Illinois secondary was shredded by Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza to the tune of 267 yards and five touchdowns on a night when he completed a stunning 91.3% of his passes, rarely challenged and almost never pushed off his spot.

Defensive coordinator Aaron Henry’s unit has sunk to 69th nationally in pass defense and will now face a high-flying USC offense that averages 331.5 yards per game through the air, good enough for 11th in the country and second in the Big Ten. Poor tackling was also a significant problem for Illinois last week. The Illini entered that game having missed four tackles in the season opener against Western Illinois, eight tackles in Week 2 against Duke and seven tackles in Week 3 against Western Michigan. But that number ballooned to 11 against the Hoosiers as Illinois struggled to corral Indiana’s bevy of playmakers in space. It’s something to watch when Illinois faces a talented group of USC skill players on Saturday. 

RJ Young: Illinois needs to keep this game within one score heading into the fourth quarter — at the very least. Last season, USC lost six games, five of which were one-score contests where the Trojans held a lead. If the Illini can force USC to finish, they’ll have more than just a fighting chance to pull off the win.

What’s remarkable about the loss to Indiana is how quickly and decisively the Hoosiers got on top of Illinois in the first half. Putting up 35 points in a half against a top-10 opponent says more about the team that won the game than the one that lost it.

Expect Illinois to be more calculated with the ball, especially on third down. When Bret Bielema’s teams are at their best, they run with authority and dominate time of possession. The Illini let an explosive offense beat them last week. They can’t afford to let that happen again, especially at home.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

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