RBI MPC Meeting Begins: The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has kicked off its three-day meeting in Mumbai, with the policy outcome scheduled for Wednesday, October 1, at 10 AM. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra will announce whether the central bank will adjust the repo rate, which currently stands at 5.5 per cent.
Investors, businesses, and policymakers are closely monitoring the decision, as any change could affect borrowing costs, investment sentiment, and overall economic activity across India.
Economists see status quo likely
A recent Zee Business poll of economists shows cautious optimism. 67 per cent of respondents expect no rate cut in the upcoming policy, while 33 per cent anticipate a 0.25 per cent cut. None foresee a 0.50 per cent reduction at this stage.
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Looking at the full financial year FY26, all economists (100 per cent) predict a cumulative 0.50 per cent rate cut, reflecting expectations of easing inflation. On the monetary policy stance, 100 per cent of respondents expect a neutral approach, signaling that the RBI is unlikely to shift to an accommodative mode immediately.
The poll also shows 100 per cent of economists expect an update to the inflation forecast for FY26, while 67 per cent expect a revision to the GDP projection, with the remaining 33 per cent uncertain.
Economists highlight key factors to watch in the RBI commentary, including global risks from tariffs, the growth impulse from GST cuts, and the overall tone of the policy, which may signal potential for future rate adjustments.
What happened in the last MPC meeting
In August 2025, the MPC kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent in a unanimous decision. Since February, the RBI has cut rates by 100 basis points before pausing in August. The upcoming decision is expected to be closely contested, balancing the need to support growth with the need to maintain macroeconomic stability.
Why the October 1 policy matters
Any adjustment to the repo rate will influence loan interest rates, corporate borrowing costs, and market sentiment. A hold is likely to maintain economic stability, while a cut could stimulate growth and increase liquidity. Traders and investors will also focus on the RBI’s commentary to gauge the central bank’s future policy direction.
