The lender’s profit after tax (PAT) is projected to rise as much as 41% YoY, while Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to grow modestly by 4–7% YoY, reflecting limited repricing benefits amid rising funding costs.
Here are the brokerages’ estimates based on 9 key metrics
1. PAT
Yes Bank’s PAT is expected to range between Rs 640 crore and Rs 783 crore, marking a 16–41% YoY jump, but a 2–20% QoQ decline due to weak treasury gains and higher provisions.
– Emkay: Rs 783 crore (+41.5% YoY, -2.3% QoQ)
– ICICI Securities: Rs 764 crore (+38.1% YoY, -4.6% QoQ)– Nomura: Rs 640 crore (+16% YoY, -20% QoQ)
2. NII
NII is likely to rise modestly in the range of Rs 2,295–Rs 2,350 crore, showing a 4–7% YoY growth. Sequentially, brokerages differ — Nomura and Emkay expect a slight decline, while ICICI Securities sees an improvement.
– Nomura: Rs 2,350 crore (+7% YoY, -1% QoQ)
– Emkay: Rs 2,309 crore (+5% YoY, -2.6% QoQ)
– ICICI Securities: Rs 2,295 crore (+4.3% YoY, +3.2% QoQ)
3. NIM
Margins are expected to stay muted, with net interest margins (NIMs) estimated at around 2.4%, broadly stable YoY but down sequentially by 6–8 basis points.
– Nomura: 2.4% (+2bps YoY, -8bps QoQ)
– Emkay: 2.4% (+4bps YoY, -6bps QoQ)
4. PPOP
Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) is projected between Rs 1,128 crore and Rs 1,294 crore, up 15–33% YoY but down 5–17% QoQ.
– Emkay: Rs 1,294 crore (+32.7% YoY, -4.7% QoQ)
– Nomura: Rs 1,160 crore (+19% YoY, -15% QoQ)
– ICICI Securities: Rs 1,128 crore (+15.7% YoY, -16.9% QoQ)
Brokerages attributed the sequential decline to lower treasury income and higher operating costs.
5. Provisions
Provisions are expected to remain stable QoQ, with a marginal YoY uptick, reflecting manageable asset quality.
– Nomura: Rs 300 crore (+1% YoY, +6% QoQ)
– Emkay expects recoveries and contained slippages to limit incremental provisioning pressure.
6. Loans
Loan growth continues to show momentum, expected to expand 7% YoY and 4% QoQ, led by steady traction in retail and MSME segments.
– Nomura: Rs 2.50 lakh crore (+7% YoY, +4% QoQ)
– ICICI Securities highlighted that slippages are likely to moderate sequentially on a high base, while overall credit demand remains stable.
7. Deposits
Deposits are likely to register 7% YoY and 8% QoQ growth, outpacing credit expansion and improving funding stability.
– Nomura: Rs 2.97 lakh crore (+7% YoY, +8% QoQ)
The bank’s deposit growth trajectory remains encouraging, supported by retail deposit mobilisation and improving customer confidence.
8. Credit cost
– Nomura: 0.5% (-6bps YoY, flat QoQ)
Also read: Gold prices rally to new high past Rs 1.3 lakh ahead of Dhanteras, silver follows suit
9. Key monitorables
Nomura said the credit cost remains contained at 0.5%, but warned that weak treasury income could weigh on PAT, while Emkay expects “recoveries from ARC sales to cushion earnings.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
